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Projected Outcomes of the 2023 Provincial Council Elections
As Iraq approaches its provincial council elections, significant shifts are emerging following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement from the race, as announced by its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. The Sadrists have long been a central force within the Shiite political sphere, and their absence has directly influenced voter behavior and the political balance, particularly in mixed provinces.
Key Impacts and Outcomes:
- Decline in Shiite Representation: The Sadrists’ withdrawal and boycott of the elections have substantially reduced Shiite seat projections, opening the door to new possibilities in the political landscape.
- Increase in Sunni Representation: The elections are expected to yield a higher share of seats for Sunnis, especially in provinces with mixed demographics, potentially strengthening their political presence.
- Persistence of Established Political Figures: Despite these shifts, the political structures and candidate lists remain largely unchanged, suggesting continuity in Iraq’s entrenched political dynamics.
Projected Seats – Baghdad & Nineveh
| Baghdad (49 seats) | Seats | Nineveh (26 seats) | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tahaluf Quwa al-Dawla al-Watani | 3 | Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP) | 5 |
| Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq / Azm | 1 | Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 3 |
| I’tilaf al-Asas al-Iraqi | 1 | Ninewa li-Ahliha | 3 |
| Al-Siyada | 3 | Al-Siyada | 3 |
| Al-Hasm al-Watani | 1 | Tahaluf al-‘Aqd al-Watani | 2–3 |
| Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 7 | Al-Huwiya al-Wataniya al-Kaldani | 2 |
| Madar | — | Al-Hasm al-Watani | 2 |
| I’tilaf Dawlat al-Qanun | 15 | Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq / Azm | 2 |
| Tahaluf Nabni | 6 | Tajdeed | 2 |
| Al-Hadbaa (Al-Fath, Dawlat al-Qanun, Asaib) | 1 | Ittihad Ahl Ninewa | 1 |
Projected Seats – Kirkuk & Salah al-Din
| Kirkuk (15 seats) | Seats | Salah al-Din (15 seats) | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabhat Turkmen al-Iraq al-Muwahhad | 3 | Al-Azm al-Madani | 3 |
| Al-Tahaluf al-‘Arabi fi Kirkuk | 2 | Tahaluf al-Itar al-Watani | 2 |
| Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP) | 4 | Al-Siyada | 2 |
| Hizb al-Ishtiraki al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani | 2 | Al-Hasm al-Watani | 1 |
| Al-Jamaheer al-Wataniya | 3 | — | — |
| Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 2 | Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 2 |
Projected Seats – Anbar & Diyala
| Anbar (16 seats) | Seats | Diyala (15 seats) | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq / Azm | 1 | Al-Ittihad al-Watani al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani | 1 |
| Al-Anbar Huwiyatuna | 3 | Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 3 |
| Al-Siyada | 2 | Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq / Azm | 1 |
| Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani / Taqaddum | 6 | Al-Siyada | 3 |
| Tahaluf Qimam | 3 | — | — |
Projected Seats – Babil & Kirkuk (Revised)
| Babil (18 seats) | Seats | Kirkuk (15 seats) | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ishraqat Kanun | 2 | Jabhat Turkmen al-Iraq al-Muwahhad | 3 |
| I’tilaf Dawlat al-Qanun | 7 | Al-Tahaluf al-‘Arabi fi Kirkuk | 2 |
| Tahaluf Quwa al-Dawla al-Watani | 4 | Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP) | 4 |
| Tahaluf Nabni | 3 | Hizb al-Ishtiraki al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani | 2 |
| Tahaluf Qiyam al-Madani | 2 | — | — |
