{"id":1729,"date":"2025-08-25T13:59:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T13:59:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/2025\/08\/25\/%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%ac-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b8%d8%a7\/"},"modified":"2026-02-07T09:15:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T09:15:11","slug":"projected-outcomes-of-the-2023-provincial-council-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/projected-outcomes-of-the-2023-provincial-council-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Projected Outcomes of the 2023 Provincial Council Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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As Iraq approaches its provincial council elections, significant shifts are emerging following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement from the race, as announced by its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. The Sadrists have long been a central force within the Shiite political sphere, and their absence has directly influenced voter behavior and the political balance, particularly in mixed provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key Impacts and Outcomes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Decline in Shiite Representation:<\/strong> The Sadrists\u2019 withdrawal and boycott of the elections have substantially reduced Shiite seat projections, opening the door to new possibilities in the political landscape.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Increase in Sunni Representation:<\/strong> The elections are expected to yield a higher share of seats for Sunnis, especially in provinces with mixed demographics, potentially strengthening their political presence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Persistence of Established Political Figures:<\/strong> Despite these shifts, the political structures and candidate lists remain largely unchanged, suggesting continuity in Iraq\u2019s entrenched political dynamics.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Projected Seats \u2013 Baghdad & Nineveh<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    Baghdad (49 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th>Nineveh (26 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Tahaluf Quwa al-Dawla al-Watani<\/td>3<\/td>Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP)<\/td>5<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq \/ Azm<\/td>1<\/td>Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    I\u2019tilaf al-Asas al-Iraqi<\/td>1<\/td>Ninewa li-Ahliha<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Siyada<\/td>3<\/td>Al-Siyada<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Hasm al-Watani<\/td>1<\/td>Tahaluf al-\u2018Aqd al-Watani<\/td>2\u20133<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>7<\/td>Al-Huwiya al-Wataniya al-Kaldani<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Madar<\/td>\u2014<\/td>Al-Hasm al-Watani<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    I\u2019tilaf Dawlat al-Qanun<\/td>15<\/td>Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq \/ Azm<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Nabni<\/td>6<\/td>Tajdeed<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Hadbaa (Al-Fath, Dawlat al-Qanun, Asaib)<\/td>1<\/td>Ittihad Ahl Ninewa<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Projected Seats \u2013 Kirkuk & Salah al-Din<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    Kirkuk (15 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th>Salah al-Din (15 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Jabhat Turkmen al-Iraq al-Muwahhad<\/td>3<\/td>Al-Azm al-Madani<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Tahaluf al-\u2018Arabi fi Kirkuk<\/td>2<\/td>Tahaluf al-Itar al-Watani<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP)<\/td>4<\/td>Al-Siyada<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Hizb al-Ishtiraki al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani<\/td>2<\/td>Al-Hasm al-Watani<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Jamaheer al-Wataniya<\/td>3<\/td>\u2014<\/td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>2<\/td>Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    Projected Seats \u2013 Anbar & Diyala<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    Anbar (16 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th>Diyala (15 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq \/ Azm<\/td>1<\/td>Al-Ittihad al-Watani al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Anbar Huwiyatuna<\/td>3<\/td>Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    Al-Siyada<\/td>2<\/td>Tahaluf Azm al-Iraq \/ Azm<\/td>1<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Taqaddum al-Watani \/ Taqaddum<\/td>6<\/td>Al-Siyada<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Qimam<\/td>3<\/td>\u2014<\/td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    Projected Seats \u2013 Babil & Kirkuk (Revised)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    Babil (18 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th>Kirkuk (15 seats)<\/strong><\/th>Seats<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Ishraqat Kanun<\/td>2<\/td>Jabhat Turkmen al-Iraq al-Muwahhad<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
    I\u2019tilaf Dawlat al-Qanun<\/td>7<\/td>Al-Tahaluf al-\u2018Arabi fi Kirkuk<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Quwa al-Dawla al-Watani<\/td>4<\/td>Hizb al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani (KDP)<\/td>4<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Nabni<\/td>3<\/td>Hizb al-Ishtiraki al-Dimuqrati al-Kurdistani<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
    Tahaluf Qiyam al-Madani<\/td>2<\/td>\u2014<\/td>\u2014<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    As Iraq approaches its provincial council elections, significant shifts are emerging following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement from the race, as announced by its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr. The Sadrists have long been a central force within the Shiite political sphere, and their absence has directly influenced voter behavior and the political balance, particularly in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pagelayer_contact_templates":[],"_pagelayer_content":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25,31,27],"tags":[126,122,123,127,121,124,129,131],"ppma_author":[153],"class_list":["post-1729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytical-papers","category-data-information","category-reports","tag-2025-en","tag-baghdad","tag-icfs","tag-iraq-en","tag-iraq-2","tag-iraqcfs","tag--en","tag-----en","author-iraqcfsadmin"],"views":9,"authors":[{"term_id":153,"user_id":1,"is_guest":0,"slug":"iraqcfsadmin","display_name":"Momen Alzrzoor","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/80d1efd3e9c81f4b5a1d5d28f2693371272c6ab331beb39a4524bcd83cb5b826.png","url2x":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/80d1efd3e9c81f4b5a1d5d28f2693371272c6ab331beb39a4524bcd83cb5b826.png"},"author_category":"1","first_name":"Momen","last_name":"Alzrzoor","user_url":"https:\/\/x.com\/momen_zr","job_title":"","description":"

    Journalist specializing in digital journalism and data analysis, currently serving as Director of the Information and Data Department at the Iraq Center for Future Studies (ICFS). Holds a Bachelor\u2019s degree in New Media from Beykent University in Istanbul, as well as a degree in Public Relations from the College of Media at the University of Baghdad.<\/p>"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1729"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2014,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions\/2014"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1729"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iraqcfs.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=1729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}